The interest is in inference about
given
.
With prior
![]() |
(24) |
, the sample mean, is a sufficient statistic for
, as
the likelihood,
, depends only on
and
(fixed), through the sampling distribution of
which is
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
(25) |
![]() |
![]() |
(26) |
so the posterior for is
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
(27) |
![]() |
![]() |
(28) |
So, by inspection
![]() |
(29) |
is a random sample of size
from
where
is known and the prior for
is
. The posterior is
where
![]() |
(30) |
and
![]() |
(31) |
The prior for is
,
and
so
posterior belief about
is as if
had a
distribution.
danny 2009-07-23